A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
